‼️ This is an absolute MUST-READ!
Popular Russian military correspondent Maxim Kalashnikov predicts that this summer offensive will be Russia’s last before its economy collapses along with its ability to wage war:
“This text appeared on the private channel “Scout”:
“The General Staff gave Putin a plan for an offensive in the second half of the summer, sources said.
For the operation, they proposed to release the military from guarding the borders to be replaced with North Korean soldiers who are being trained for that.
The head of the General Staff personally reported to the president about the readiness for a large-scale phase of the operation in the coming months with the advances beyond the new regions.
In the main scenario, which the insiders got acquainted with, it is planned to break deep into the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions to create a buffer zone by the end of summer. The document also contains plans to advance to Odesa.
The General Staff offers the president to expand the buffer zone as much as possible before the onset of autumn rains, when the roads will make it difficult to use the equipment and force the parties to move to positional warfare.
According to the source, Russia should have enough resources for such an operation.”
I think the above is almost a fantasy.
Even if 30,000 North Koreans replace our border guards, a big offensive (with the crossing of the Dnieper!) won’t work.
1. The issue of paralysing the rear of the AFU by an air operation has not been resolved. The management and logistics of the AFU haven't been destroyed.
2. Therefore, the issue with the mass use of the drone army by the enemy, which creates a “death zone” 50 km deep from the line of contact, has not been resolved.
That is, the enemy will inflict monstrous losses on our equipment and infantry, turning our attempts to attack into a kind of Passchendaele or “Nivelle offensive slaughter” in WWI, holding the line itself with quite stretched forces.
Our quantitative superiority (but not qualitative and not in terms of organizing the drone army) does not solve the problem.
We have not put our air force in order and therefore we do not provide protection for local combat zones.
Therefore, what advance on Odesa is even possible? Only the slow squeezing of the AFU at an extremely expensive cost to us.
Otherwise, the System, permeated with nepotism and simony, corruption and stagnation, the System does not know how to conduct combat actions.
One thing is true: summer is our last attempt. Further, the raging crisis in the economy of the Russian Federation will put an end to the country’s ability to wage war.
Both Ukraine and the Russian Federation are getting tired.
No “cosmetic fixes” can correct the tangle of frank missed opportunities and complete neglect of the modern warfare experiences we have gained since both 2014 and 2022.
It’s too late to take medicine when your kidneys have already failed. That’s why we’ll have to do what Trump wants...”